On the back of a keynote I am delivering this week to one of Australia’s largest commercial builders on the Future of the Construction Industry, I chatted with Jackson Stiles of the New Daily about what lies ahead for our cities and homes over the next 100 years.

Three skyscrapers span the sky, linked by roads, and riddled with apartments to live in, parks for children to play, offices to work and a vast array of leisure areas in one mega building.

Early in October, this vision won a Chinese competition to design the perfect skyscraper, and it could be the blueprint of how our children and grandchildren will live.

The vibrancy of the inner city, with its proximity to work and play, will draw more of us in future decades, but the Australian dream of owning your own home with three bedrooms, two garages and a Hills Hoist in the backyard may be dead.

University of Sydney Associate Professor Nicole Gurran told The New Daily that home ownership rates in Australia are falling, mainly due to unaffordability, as more and more of us flock to the city.

“That will continue unless there’s some kind of intervention,” she said.

Home ownership rates are falling. Photo: Urban Future Organization and CR-Design

In fact, the percentage of home owners has dropped from 71.4 to 67.5 per cent over the last 20 years, ABS data shows.

In 30 years’ time, without investment in the suburbs and no dramatic decentralisation, our cities may become higher, denser and full of renters in smaller apartments, Associate Professor Gurran said.

The latest ABS data shows that the proportion of first time buyers taking out a home loan dropped to a record low of 11.8 per cent in August, the lowest since the data set began in 1991.

Research by HIA Economics has found that the dwelling price to earnings ratio in Sydney climbed from around 4.4 times in the mid 1990s to 6.63 in mid-2014.

House prices continue to rise, and so does our sky line. Photo: Urban Future Organization and CR-Design

Data from Australian Property Monitors also shows that since 2004 the median national house price has increased by 72 per cent, with the biggest increases seen in Darwin (170 per cent), Perth (145 per cent), Adelaide (80 per cent), Melbourne (61 per cent), Brisbane (56 per cent) and Canberra (49 per cent).

Associate Professor Gurran drew comparisons to the US, where a gulf is widening between rich and poor, forever barring the impoverished out of home ownership.

“Those with parents who can help them get into the market or who have inherited wealth, they’ll be able to get in. Those who can’t get in will be locked out without intervention, certainly in the major global cities,” she predicted.

Property futurist Paul Ross compiles his own property data. He confirmed to The New Daily that the universal trend, whether at a local or a national level, is away from home loans and towards rentals, especially in the capitals.

“Grandkids renting in the clouds? You bet. That’s the way it’s going to be,” he said, because suburbs no longer hold the same quaint appeal.

Inner city living is all about proximity and lifestyle. Photo: Urban Future Organization and CR-Design

“Everything is now about lifestyle,” Mr Ross said. “People want accessibility to whatever their lifestyle pursuits may be.”

“Every single capital city except Hobart is going to see an increase in renting.”

Futurist Morris Miselowski, who has just returned from a tour of New York and several Asian cities, agreed that the worldwide trend is to live in the clouds, with home ownership “a dream of the past”.

Multiple generations will probably live together under the same roof in centralised, sky high buildings, although he hoped that Australians will spread beyond the cities into self-sufficient, satellite “villages” as well.

Up is not the only direction in which we can sprawl. Photo: Urban Future Organization and CR-Design

“Even though we are building corridors out, people are still pushing back in towards the centre, and I don’t think that will change,” Mr Miselowski said.

“We’re too blindly walking into denser, higher populations because many of us want to live close, which is not a crime.

“We are truly lucky in Australia because we have the ability to go wide not high if we wish to.”

But leading property industry figures argue that the dream of owning a traditional home is still alive, at least for now.

Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale said that Australia still has a high proportion of home ownership by world standards – 67.5 per cent in 2011-12 – and that we are nowhere near becoming a “nation of renters’’ as some pundits have speculated.

“We are faced with a challenge in arresting the decline in home ownership rates, but it is by no means a lost cause, or a downward trend that is irreversible,” Mr Dale said.

Home ownership may yet be ingrained in our psyche. Photo: Urban Future Organization and CR-Design

Demographer Chris McNeill told The New Daily while home ownership rates have been falling in recent years it is likely to remain comparatively high on an international level because “owning your own home is ingrained on the Australian psyche”.

When asked if the declining rate of home ownership is something to worry about, the demographer replied: “At this stage, I don’t think so.”

“In fact, many financial advisors have long argued that people would be better off renting than buying a house. From a personal perspective, I’m not sure I agree with that view, but that’s mainly because I don’t have the discipline to channel the savings accrued from renting into other income producing investments,” he said.

 source Jackson Styles